gradual market recovery in Container Shipping Market
Hanjin’s receivership represents the trough of the container shipping market and despite continuing concerns of weak trade growth and fleet oversupply a gradual market recovery is now expected, according to the latest annual Container Forecaster and Review 2016/17 report published by global shipping consultancy Drewry.
ASccording to MANA,Worse than expected second quarter financial results will be followed by a better second half-year. But Drewry still expects container carriers to record a collective operating loss of $5 billion this year. We forecast industry profitability to recover next year, thanks to improving freight rates and slightly higher cargo volumes, and so record a modest operating profit of $2.5 billion in 2017.
The fact that the orderbook is at a virtual standstill is a major positive as is rapidly increased scrapping. But even so, the next two years will still be very challenging on the supply side with annual fleet growth of between 5% and 6% and many more ultra large container vessels (ULCVs) to be delivered.
In reaction, the industry is rapidly consolidating by necessity rather than by design. Those carriers who can weather this prolonged storm have a chance of emerging the strongest in 2019/20.