News ID: 64515 |
Publish Date: 09:32 - 18 April 2016

WTO predicts world's trade situation in 2016

In its latest report, World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted world's trade situation in 2016. Based on this report, a reduction in the prices of goods in the recent years, a decrease in the international demand, and reduction in oil price have resulted in a decrease in the trade and its growth.

WTO predicts worldAccording to MANA,WTO report also highlights a considerable reduction in the trade-gross product value ratio as well as the ratio of trade growth and gross product growth. Despite this, it is expected that the growth rate of import and export in the international scale undergo an acceptable rise in 2016 in comparison with 2015.
Based on WTO report, Khabar-Online Press predicted that the growth in world trade increases from 2.8 % in 2015 to 3.9 % in 2016. The predictions of WTO highlight that export rate growth in the developed countries will ascend from 3 % in 2015 to 3.8 % in 2016. For the developing countries and the newly-advanced countries, the figure was prognosticated to rise from 2.4 % in 2015 to 3.8 % in 2016. Moreover, the growth of import in economically-developed countries is foreseen to increase from 3.1 % in 2015 to 3.2 % in 2016.
WTO report expressed that the largest growth downfall in export belonged to Asia, mainly due to the slowdown in China's economy. On the other hand, the largest growth in export belongs to the North American countries. It is however predicted that the largest export growth will be made by Asia again at a rate of 5.4 percent.
In the import section, the largest downfall in the import belonged to the South and Central America in 2015. On the contrary, the largest import growth rate was made by North American countries.It is nonetheless predicted that the largest import growth will be made by South and Central America at a rate of 5.7 %.
Based on WTO report, Euro countries will have the largest share in the international import growth in 2016, followed by South East Asia countries. In 2015, however, this rate belonged to European Union countries and North American countries.
One of the most affective factors in world trade different parts of the globe is the prices of goods and raw material. Based on the existing statistics, prices of many basic goods and raw material have continuously decreased. Likewise, oil price and the price of the non-fuel goods underwent a falling trend in these years.
Some economists harbor that the increase in goods prices brings about a rise in the international trade of goods, and an increase in goods prices in the long run is prone to diminish the heyday of world trade. Based on the predictions made by this international institution, it is expected that the non-fuel commodities, which had the largest fall in 2015 at the rate of 15.6 %, will keep their descending trend in 2016 and will experience a 1.7 % fall. Yet, oil price will increase up to 9.1 %.
Moreover, based on the report released by the Stock Exchange Organization, the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlight that the developing countries and the newly-advanced BRIC will experience an economic growth which is twice as much as the industrial nations in 2016.
In addition, it its annual report, the UN speculated the economic growth of 4.7 % for 2016 whereas it had predicted a growth of 3.7 % for 2015.
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