BP sees global LNG trade doubling by 2040

BP 2019 Energy Outlook expects global trades of liquefied natural gas could more than double between 2017 and 2040 with exports to increase significantly, led by US and Qatar, fostering a more competitive and globally integrated market.

News ID: 80347

Date: 16 February 2019 - 08:42

Global LNG trades are forecast to grow to 900bn cu m by 2040 from 400bn cu m in 2017, according to BP Energy Outlook 2019’s Evolving Transition scenario

THE VOLUME OF LNG TRADED IS FORECAST TO EXCEED NATURAL GAS SHIPPED INTER-REGIONALLY BY PIPELINE BY THE LATE 2020S.

GLOBAL trades of liquefied natural gas could more than double between 2017 and 2040, driven by countries switching to cleaner energy that emits less greenhouse gases, according to BP.

Global LNG trades will grow to 900bn cu m by 2040 from 400bn cu m in 2017.

The forecast is made as part of BP Energy Outlook 2019’s Evolving Transition scenario, which assumes continued progress in policies and technologies.

The report expects LNG exports to increase significantly, led by the US and Qatar, fostering a more competitive and globally integrated market.

By late the 2020s, the volume of LNG traded will exceed natural gas shipped inter-regionally by pipeline, it says.

However, the precise profile of LNG volume growth will depend on the timing and availability of the new investments needed to finance the considerable expansion.

“The cyclical nature of LNG investments means there is a risk that the development of the LNG market will continue to be associated with periods of volatility,” the report added.

On the supply side, the increase in LNG exports will be led by North America, followed by the Middle East, Africa and Russia.

BP forecasts that as the LNG market matures, the US and Qatar will emerge as the main centres of LNG exports, accounting for about 40% of all LNG exports by 2040.

Meanwhile, Asia remains the dominant market for LNG imports, although the pattern of imports within Asia is forecast to shift, with China, India and other Asian countries overtaking the more established markets of Japan and South Korea, and accounting for around half of all LNG imports by 2040.

BP expects Europe to remain a key market during the period, both as a ‘balancing market’ for LNG supplies and a key hub of gas-on-gas competition between LNG and pipeline gas. “Europe’s existing infrastructure means it has the capacity to increase substantially its imports of either LNG or pipeline gas, especially from Russia.”