Shipping confidence edges down as business costs rise

Following a more positive sentiment in the summer, optimism levels dropped in the industry between September and November. Brokers were in fact the only ones who bucked this trend.

News ID: 80310

Date: 14 December 2018 - 11:08

Moore Stephens survey reveals that only brokers held a better outlook between September and November.

RICHARD GREINER LAMENTED DROP IN CONFIDENCE BUT APPLAUDED INVESTMENT APPETITE.

SHIPPING confidence has declined in a latest industry survey as more people expect costs will rise over the coming years.

The survey by Moore Stephens has found that shipowners, charterers and managers all felt less assured, with their overall score down to 6 out of 10 in the period of between September and November from 6.3 recorded in June-August.

Ship brokers were the only ones going against the grain, seeing their confidence level climbed to 5.2 from 4.9-- albeit from a lower base than other stakeholders.

A total of 67% of the surveyed individuals expected costs in their business to grow over the next few years, versus 59% seen previously.

By comparison, 71% of the brokers thought likewise, the same proportion shown in the previous three months.

Despite anticipated increase in costs, overall score for the likelihood of making new investments next year remained at 5.5.

“But shipping is nothing if not volatile, and there will always be ups and downs." Moore Stephens shipping and transport partner Richard Greiner said, adding the survey's confidence level reached a four-year high earlier this year.

In face of the global sulphur cap, 24% of the respondents expected the price difference between high-sulphur fuel oil and compliant fuel oil to stand at $250-$324 per metric tonne on January 1, 2020 while 18% opted for $325-$399.

At the same time, almost a quarter of the respondents believed the gap could be as low as between $30 and $100.