Dry Bulk Trade Growth to Outweigh Fleet Expansion

DRY bulk trade growth is expected to outpace fleet expansion this year and next, which should support a continued recovery.

News ID: 77212

Date: 11 November 2017 - 14:04

According to MANA, according to Clarksons estimates, global trade will rise by 4.2% this year and 2.7% in 2018. That compares with the dry bulk fleet increasing by 3.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

The higher trade volumes will be led by iron ore and coal thanks to China’s resurgent robust demand.

China’s hunger for higher quality imported ore should see its imports rise 4% to 1.1bn tonnes over the course of 2018, Clarksons said in its updated trade outlook report. As mine output ramps up, shipments from Brazil are expected to expand by 5% to 407m tonnes, while volumes from Australia are scheduled to rise by 2% to about 849m tonnes, it said.

Port Hedland in Western Australia shipped 35.1m tonnes of iron ore to China in October versus 35m a year earlier, according to the Pilbara Ports Authority.

While deliveries of bulker newbuildings have declined this year, so too have demolitions.

According to Banchero Costa, 401 units were delivered for 35.1m dwt in the first 10 months of the year compared with 489 units for a total of 42.1m dwt over the same period last year. Scrapping stood at 174 units for 12.3m dwt versus 345 units totalling 27.1m dwt.

In 2018, Clarksons expects deliveries to drop to 23m dwt and removals to slump to 13m dwt.

The Baltic Dry Index, a benchmark indicator, was meanwhile little changed in the week, closing Thursday at 1,481 points.

Capesize

Average time-charter earnings raced up to $22,613 per day on the Baltic Exchange at the close on Friday from $20,563 a week ago, driven by the Brazil to China voyage which reached $19.10 per tonne, the highest since September 26.

Some last-minute spot requirements also emerged from Australia, which supported rates, according to Fearnleys.

In the spot market $26,900 per day was the highest paid for a trip from Australia to South Korea, according to Clarksons data.

Panamax

Earnings dropped 6% to $11,785 per day at the close on Thursday versus November 3, led by weakness in the Far East, the Baltic Exchange said.

Coal was the most prominent cargo in the spot market, followed by some grains fixtures, and a fertilizer load, Clarksons data showed.

Period activity saw fixtures at $13,600 per day and $13,750 for six months, with a nine-month charter concluded at $10,500 per day, according to VesselsValue.

Supramax

Sentiment was negative in the Asian market, leading to a slump to $10,534 per day on Thursday from $11,306 on November 3, according to the Baltic Exchange.

The highest spot trade was reportedly concluded at $21,750 per day for a steel cargo loading in the Black Sea and discharging in the Arab Gulf, with the second-highest at $18,000 per day from the US Gulf to the east coast of Mexico, according to Clarksons. Two deals from Indonesia to China were fixed at $6,800 and $8,050 per day.

Danish shipping company Norden returned to profitability in the third quarter based on higher earnings from its dry bulk fleet. Its focus is on the supramax and panamax segments.

Handysize

Earnings dipped to $9,454 per day on the Baltic Exchange from $9,707 in an unexciting week.

Norden said it would look to sell its owned handysize fleet, comprised of eight vessels, when prices become attractive. However, it has a plan of increasing its exposure in the chartered operations of this segment.