Efforts to slash international shipping’s annual total emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared with 2008 are still at nascent stages
As the IMO prepares to launch a new greenhouse study and develop short-term measure to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, BIMCO claims previous carbon emission forecasts used fundamentally flawed assumptions; the industry’s emissions output is actually a declining trajectory but radical changes in fuels will be necessary to meet long-term targets, according to the organisation
BIMCO’s new research finds that greenhouse gas emissions from shipping peaked in 2008 and focus should be improving the future fleet’s performance
THE annual total carbon emissions from shipping will decline by almost 20% by 2050 compared with the peak in 2008, BIMCO has claimed.
The International Maritime Organization agreed in April to reduce international shipping annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2050 and improve carbon intensity performance by 40% by 2030.
The IMO targets will be revised in 2023 to take into account data from vessel emissions between 2019 and 2021.
A 2014 IMO study into greenhouse gases laid out on a number of scenarios projecting shipping’s emissions output. The most extreme forecast was for a 250% increase by 2050 if no efforts are made to curb emissions.
BIMCO deputy secretary general Lars Robert Pedersen said the unreleased study, conducted by CE Delft, revised these projections using the same framework but avoiding the “unrealistic” assumptions the IMO research used.
Among the changes was the inclusion of historical data for 20% of seaborne trade that was missing in the IMO study and long-term GDP growth projections based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, rather a simple 2% annual GDP growth rate assumption/
That results showed that shipping peaked its carbon emissions in 2008 and projected up to a 20% decline by 2050, with the steep decline beginning around 2035.
BIMCO and other industry associations had at one point sought to insert the assumption that CO2 emissions peaked in 2008 into the strategy but the point never made the cut.
Mr Pedersen said he believed the 2030 carbon intensity targets will be met as the fleet becomes continuously more efficient, but attaining the 2050 targets requires a radical change in the way future vessels are fuelled.
“The focus needs to be on the more longer-term [measures], the newer fleet. We need to build a new and better fleet that has to cut its emissions to meet the 2050 target,” he told a meeting in London.
The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee will meet in October to begin discussions on the short-term measures the industry can take to reduce GHG emissions.